Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$16,736 Vol.
$16,736 Vol.
Jul 28, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$16,736 Vol.
$16,736 Vol.
Jul 28, 2026
19°C or below
$451 Vol.
No
20°C
$481 Vol.
No
21°C
$555 Vol.
No
22°C
$520 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,735 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$2,630 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,687 Vol.
No
26°C
$247 Vol.
No
27°C
$545 Vol.
No
28°C
$610 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$275 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,736Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,736Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 26, 2026, 6:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan