Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$11,220 Vol.
$11,220 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$11,220 Vol.
$11,220 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
$300 Vol.
No
23°C
$396 Vol.
No
24°C
$342 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,028 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,906 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,354 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$2,972 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,997 Vol.
No
30°C
$362 Vol.
No
31°C
$300 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$263 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,220Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,220Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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