**Current forecast consensus for Jinan points to an overnight low in the 16–20 °C range on September 4, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and typical early-September radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure regime.** Multiple model outputs and agency guidance (including equivalents to NHC/NOAA-style regional forecasts) show daytime highs near 30–31 °C followed by gradual nighttime decline, with the minimum most likely occurring just before dawn. Light winds (generally under 10 km/h) limit mixing, while low humidity supports efficient longwave radiation loss from the surface—standard for Jinan’s continental climate in early autumn, when average September lows sit around 16–19 °C. The near-even split between the “22 °C or higher” (47.5 %) and “12 °C or below” (47.0 %) market outcomes reflects residual model spread and uncertainty in the precise timing of the minimum rather than any active weather threat. No fronts, significant moisture, or anomalous cold-air advection are indicated in the latest runs; traders appear to be pricing in the possibility of either slightly stronger cooling under clearer conditions or modest warming from increased cloud cover or a slight wind shift. Updated model guidance and official CMA observations over the next 12–24 hours will be the key catalysts for any sharp repricing.