Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in NYC on April 28?
Lowest temperature in NYC on April 28?
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 Vol.
$28,173 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
39°F or below
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
Yes
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F or higher
No
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 Vol.
$28,173 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
39°F or below
$1,194 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$905 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$1,585 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$1,773 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$8,679 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$1,704 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$3,217 Vol.
Yes
52-53°F
$2,483 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$988 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$508 Vol.
No
58°F or higher
$5,137 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$28,173Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,173Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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