**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Paris on July 13?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 13?
22°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,520 Vol.
$12,520 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$12,520 Vol.
$12,520 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
21°C or below
$1,926 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,322 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$1,626 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,298 Vol.
No
25°C
$756 Vol.
No
26°C
$668 Vol.
No
27°C
$845 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,632 Vol.
No
29°C
$764 Vol.
No
30°C
$389 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$294 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins.
Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range.
Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$12,520Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins.
Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range.
Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,520Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 13, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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