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Iklim & Sains·Penyakit

New pandemic before 2028?

icon for New pandemic before 2028?
Iklim & Sains·Penyakit

New pandemic before 2028?

Dec 31

Jan 1, 2028

Dec 31

Jan 1, 2028

16% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
16% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.**Trader consensus favoring an 84% implied probability of no new pandemic before 2028 stems primarily from sustained post-COVID surveillance showing no novel pathogen achieving efficient, global human-to-human transmission.** WHO and CDC monitoring through mid-2026 indicates moderate COVID-19 risk with stable severity, ongoing but limited avian influenza A(H5N1) cases lacking sustained spread, and regional outbreaks—including the Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in DRC/Uganda, mpox clade I, and hantavirus incidents—remaining geographically contained without exponential growth or reassortment. Enhanced genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have lowered escalation likelihood compared to historical baselines, though uncertainty around zoonotic spillovers, viral evolution in reservoirs, and surveillance gaps in low-resource areas persists. Upcoming agency updates on case trends and variant tracking will continue informing these odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$2,400
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 2:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.**Trader consensus favoring an 84% implied probability of no new pandemic before 2028 stems primarily from sustained post-COVID surveillance showing no novel pathogen achieving efficient, global human-to-human transmission.** WHO and CDC monitoring through mid-2026 indicates moderate COVID-19 risk with stable severity, ongoing but limited avian influenza A(H5N1) cases lacking sustained spread, and regional outbreaks—including the Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in DRC/Uganda, mpox clade I, and hantavirus incidents—remaining geographically contained without exponential growth or reassortment. Enhanced genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have lowered escalation likelihood compared to historical baselines, though uncertainty around zoonotic spillovers, viral evolution in reservoirs, and surveillance gaps in low-resource areas persists. Upcoming agency updates on case trends and variant tracking will continue informing these odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$2,400
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 2:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New pandemic before 2028?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 16% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 16¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 16% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"New pandemic before 2028?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 13, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "New pandemic before 2028?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "New pandemic before 2028?" adalah 16% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 16% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New pandemic before 2028?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.