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Dunia·Science

New pandemic in 2026?

Market icon
Dunia·Science

New pandemic in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

12% peluang
Polymarket

$232,534 Vol.

12% peluang
Polymarket

$232,534 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Trader consensus assigns an 88.5% implied probability to no new pandemic in 2026, driven by the lack of any novel pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission and global spread per WHO pandemic criteria, as confirmed by ongoing surveillance from WHO and CDC. The most recent Disease Outbreak News on April 10 reported isolated avian influenza A(H9N2) in Italy with no human cases or epidemic signals, while CDC tracks regional threats like meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Level 2 alert) and U.S. measles at 1,671 confirmed cases as of April 2—none escalating beyond localized outbreaks. Enhanced post-COVID global networks, including WHO's R&D roadmaps released April 7, support containment of watched pathogens like mpox and Oropouche virus. Traders await next WHO epidemiological updates for shifts in transmission dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$232,534
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Trader consensus assigns an 88.5% implied probability to no new pandemic in 2026, driven by the lack of any novel pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission and global spread per WHO pandemic criteria, as confirmed by ongoing surveillance from WHO and CDC. The most recent Disease Outbreak News on April 10 reported isolated avian influenza A(H9N2) in Italy with no human cases or epidemic signals, while CDC tracks regional threats like meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Level 2 alert) and U.S. measles at 1,671 confirmed cases as of April 2—none escalating beyond localized outbreaks. Enhanced post-COVID global networks, including WHO's R&D roadmaps released April 7, support containment of watched pathogens like mpox and Oropouche virus. Traders await next WHO epidemiological updates for shifts in transmission dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$232,534
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New pandemic in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 12¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "New pandemic in 2026?" telah menghasilkan $232.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 1, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "New pandemic in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "New pandemic in 2026?" adalah 12% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 12% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New pandemic in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.