Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any M8.5+ earthquakes per USGS records, VEI≥6 volcanic eruptions per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, ≥10kt meteor strikes tracked by NASA fireball networks, or Category 5 hurricane landfalls on the US mainland or territories as defined by the National Hurricane Center through mid-April. These events remain historically rare—M8.5+ quakes average one every 5–10 years globally, VEI≥6 eruptions once per decade, and US Cat5 landfalls fewer than five since 1851—bolstering No bets amid thin early-year activity. Recent transition from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions may elevate Atlantic hurricane risks, with NOAA seasonal outlooks due in May offering key updates before peak season in August–October.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$204,562 Vol.
$204,562 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$204,562 Vol.
$204,562 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any M8.5+ earthquakes per USGS records, VEI≥6 volcanic eruptions per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, ≥10kt meteor strikes tracked by NASA fireball networks, or Category 5 hurricane landfalls on the US mainland or territories as defined by the National Hurricane Center through mid-April. These events remain historically rare—M8.5+ quakes average one every 5–10 years globally, VEI≥6 eruptions once per decade, and US Cat5 landfalls fewer than five since 1851—bolstering No bets amid thin early-year activity. Recent transition from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions may elevate Atlantic hurricane risks, with NOAA seasonal outlooks due in May offering key updates before peak season in August–October.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$204,562Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any M8.5+ earthquakes per USGS records, VEI≥6 volcanic eruptions per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, ≥10kt meteor strikes tracked by NASA fireball networks, or Category 5 hurricane landfalls on the US mainland or territories as defined by the National Hurricane Center through mid-April. These events remain historically rare—M8.5+ quakes average one every 5–10 years globally, VEI≥6 eruptions once per decade, and US Cat5 landfalls fewer than five since 1851—bolstering No bets amid thin early-year activity. Recent transition from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions may elevate Atlantic hurricane risks, with NOAA seasonal outlooks due in May offering key updates before peak season in August–October.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$204,562Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any M8.5+ earthquakes per USGS records, VEI≥6 volcanic eruptions per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data, ≥10kt meteor strikes tracked by NASA fireball networks, or Category 5 hurricane landfalls on the US mainland or territories as defined by the National Hurricane Center through mid-April. These events remain historically rare—M8.5+ quakes average one every 5–10 years globally, VEI≥6 eruptions once per decade, and US Cat5 landfalls fewer than five since 1851—bolstering No bets amid thin early-year activity. Recent transition from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions may elevate Atlantic hurricane risks, with NOAA seasonal outlooks due in May offering key updates before peak season in August–October.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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