Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices Yes shares at 64%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April, including no leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, no U.S. military invasion of Iran, and no fall of the Iranian regime. Recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have held despite minor Gaza violations, signaling de-escalation in Middle East tensions after earlier Trump threats. Steady diplomatic postures across Taiwan Strait and domestic U.S. stability ahead of November midterms further bolster the probability of status quo persistence through year-end, though late-breaking geopolitical shifts or health events could still alter odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Tidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
$502,734 Vol.
$502,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$502,734 Vol.
$502,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices Yes shares at 64%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April, including no leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, no U.S. military invasion of Iran, and no fall of the Iranian regime. Recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have held despite minor Gaza violations, signaling de-escalation in Middle East tensions after earlier Trump threats. Steady diplomatic postures across Taiwan Strait and domestic U.S. stability ahead of November midterms further bolster the probability of status quo persistence through year-end, though late-breaking geopolitical shifts or health events could still alter odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$502,734Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices Yes shares at 64%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April, including no leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, no U.S. military invasion of Iran, and no fall of the Iranian regime. Recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have held despite minor Gaza violations, signaling de-escalation in Middle East tensions after earlier Trump threats. Steady diplomatic postures across Taiwan Strait and domestic U.S. stability ahead of November midterms further bolster the probability of status quo persistence through year-end, though late-breaking geopolitical shifts or health events could still alter odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$502,734Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices Yes shares at 64%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April, including no leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, no U.S. military invasion of Iran, and no fall of the Iranian regime. Recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks have held despite minor Gaza violations, signaling de-escalation in Middle East tensions after earlier Trump threats. Steady diplomatic postures across Taiwan Strait and domestic U.S. stability ahead of November midterms further bolster the probability of status quo persistence through year-end, though late-breaking geopolitical shifts or health events could still alter odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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