Traders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Tidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Ya
$592,996 Vol.
$592,996 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
$592,996 Vol.
$592,996 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$592,996Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$592,996Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 71% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting the lack of major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions in the first five months of the year. Monthly analogs such as Nothing Ever Happens: May resolved to "Nothing" at over 99%, and the newly launched June market shows similarly elevated odds for stability, indicating that scheduled events like midterms preparation, ongoing diplomatic negotiations, and routine agency decisions have not yet produced the type of catalyst that would shift the 2026 resolution. With resolution tied to December 31, 2026, the current pricing captures trader consensus on the absence of transformative developments through mid-year while leaving room for later shifts from elections, policy deadlines, or international developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan