Trader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market, with Yes shares trading near 82.5%, reflects the absence of resolution-triggering events through early September. President Trump remains in office, with no change in leadership, Republican Senate supermajority, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including recent airstrikes and a fragile ceasefire, have not escalated to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime collapse. Russia-Ukraine fighting and Israel-Gaza operations continue without NATO invasion, Taiwan action by China, or leadership shifts involving Xi Jinping. Bitcoin prices have avoided extreme thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters or other listed conditions have materialized. Upcoming midterms, UN General Assembly sessions, and scheduled summits have so far produced no developments meeting the market's criteria, sustaining elevated implied probability for no qualifying events through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Tidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Ya
83% peluang
$758,838 Vol.
$758,838 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Ya
83% peluang
$758,838 Vol.
$758,838 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market, with Yes shares trading near 82.5%, reflects the absence of resolution-triggering events through early September. President Trump remains in office, with no change in leadership, Republican Senate supermajority, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including recent airstrikes and a fragile ceasefire, have not escalated to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime collapse. Russia-Ukraine fighting and Israel-Gaza operations continue without NATO invasion, Taiwan action by China, or leadership shifts involving Xi Jinping. Bitcoin prices have avoided extreme thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters or other listed conditions have materialized. Upcoming midterms, UN General Assembly sessions, and scheduled summits have so far produced no developments meeting the market's criteria, sustaining elevated implied probability for no qualifying events through year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$758,838Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market, with Yes shares trading near 82.5%, reflects the absence of resolution-triggering events through early September. President Trump remains in office, with no change in leadership, Republican Senate supermajority, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including recent airstrikes and a fragile ceasefire, have not escalated to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime collapse. Russia-Ukraine fighting and Israel-Gaza operations continue without NATO invasion, Taiwan action by China, or leadership shifts involving Xi Jinping. Bitcoin prices have avoided extreme thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters or other listed conditions have materialized. Upcoming midterms, UN General Assembly sessions, and scheduled summits have so far produced no developments meeting the market's criteria, sustaining elevated implied probability for no qualifying events through year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$758,838Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market, with Yes shares trading near 82.5%, reflects the absence of resolution-triggering events through early September. President Trump remains in office, with no change in leadership, Republican Senate supermajority, or acquisition of Greenland. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including recent airstrikes and a fragile ceasefire, have not escalated to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime collapse. Russia-Ukraine fighting and Israel-Gaza operations continue without NATO invasion, Taiwan action by China, or leadership shifts involving Xi Jinping. Bitcoin prices have avoided extreme thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters or other listed conditions have materialized. Upcoming midterms, UN General Assembly sessions, and scheduled summits have so far produced no developments meeting the market's criteria, sustaining elevated implied probability for no qualifying events through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan