Traders assign an 84.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 because the conflict has settled into a war of attrition featuring intermittent airstrikes, sanctions, and naval pressure rather than large-scale ground operations. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli campaign that damaged Iranian nuclear and military sites and killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding collapsed amid renewed limited exchanges focused on the Strait of Hormuz and shipping. As of September 2026, U.S. officials emphasize calibrated coercion, economic measures, and diplomacy with verifiable nuclear limits, while noting munitions shortages and the prohibitive costs of occupying territory against Iran's large ground forces. Experts assess major invasions as high-risk with uncertain gains, favoring containment over escalation in the remaining timeframe.