Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has featured airstrikes, missile exchanges, naval blockades, and strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. U.S. objectives have centered on degrading nuclear and missile capabilities through air and naval means, with total costs exceeding $43 billion and munitions shortfalls emerging. Multiple ceasefires and memoranda of understanding collapsed amid renewed limited strikes, while diplomatic mediation via Qatar and others continues into September 2026. President Trump has issued strong public threats of major escalation, including recent statements weighing full military action against economic pressure or renewed talks, yet no ground invasion or large-scale troop deployment has materialized. Traders price in the high logistical, financial, and escalation risks of a full invasion in the remaining months of 2026, consistent with the administration’s pattern of calibrated strikes and preference for sanctions leverage.