The new Colombian administration under President Abelardo de la Espriella, inaugurated in August 2026, has rapidly aligned with the United States on counternarcotics, authorizing joint military operations against armed groups and cartels while joining the Shield of the Americas coalition. Recent U.S. Southern Command engagement, including visits focused on Pacific routes and the Ecuador border, plus pledges of security assistance, underscore deepening bilateral cooperation rather than confrontation. This reset follows earlier tensions under the prior government and explains the 97.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026. Remaining low-probability shifts could stem from sudden breakdowns in joint operations, major escalations involving third parties like Venezuela, or unforeseen domestic political reversals in either country before year-end.