U.S. military operations in Venezuela, including the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro and subsequent airstrikes on drug-related targets, have shifted relations toward cooperation with interim leader Delcy Rodríguez rather than territorial occupation. Recent developments include an August 2026 oil agreement granting the U.S. a stake in Venezuelan production, ongoing Caribbean naval deployments for counter-narcotics strikes, and U.S. military support for earthquake relief efforts. Trader consensus on low odds for a full-scale invasion by late 2026 reflects this pattern of targeted actions, economic leverage, and diplomatic engagement over ground-force control of territory. Scheduled opposition talks and further oil-field developments could influence escalation risks or stabilization in the coming months.