US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for military unification and are unlikely to launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 or sooner, favoring continued coercive measures short of war. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026, deadline, the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildups, or shifts in People’s Liberation Army force posture around the Taiwan Strait underpins trader consensus reflected in the 96.2% probability for “No.” Taiwan’s ongoing defense modernization and annual drills have further reduced near-term vulnerability. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include rapid escalation from a miscalculation during gray-zone activities or sudden leadership decisions in Beijing, though current evidence shows no such indicators.