Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew from affected locations. U.S. intelligence and IAEA assessments through April 2026 report no resumption of uranium enrichment, no structured weaponization activities, and no evidence of a program to produce a testable nuclear device. Iran’s remaining enriched uranium stockpile remains inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no plans for recovery. Ongoing diplomatic talks have not altered these constraints, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92% probability assigned to no nuclear test occurring before 2027.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$200,361 Vol.
$200,361 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$200,361 Vol.
$200,361 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew from affected locations. U.S. intelligence and IAEA assessments through April 2026 report no resumption of uranium enrichment, no structured weaponization activities, and no evidence of a program to produce a testable nuclear device. Iran’s remaining enriched uranium stockpile remains inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no plans for recovery. Ongoing diplomatic talks have not altered these constraints, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92% probability assigned to no nuclear test occurring before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$200,361Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew from affected locations. U.S. intelligence and IAEA assessments through April 2026 report no resumption of uranium enrichment, no structured weaponization activities, and no evidence of a program to produce a testable nuclear device. Iran’s remaining enriched uranium stockpile remains inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no plans for recovery. Ongoing diplomatic talks have not altered these constraints, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92% probability assigned to no nuclear test occurring before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$200,361Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew from affected locations. U.S. intelligence and IAEA assessments through April 2026 report no resumption of uranium enrichment, no structured weaponization activities, and no evidence of a program to produce a testable nuclear device. Iran’s remaining enriched uranium stockpile remains inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no plans for recovery. Ongoing diplomatic talks have not altered these constraints, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 92% probability assigned to no nuclear test occurring before 2027.
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