**Ongoing negotiations and extensive damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.** Strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering main facilities inoperable or inaccessible, with tunnel entrances backfilled and no reported uranium enrichment activity since. Iran's roughly 400+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely trapped or unverified at damaged locations, limiting any near-term weaponization pathway. IAEA verification has been suspended at affected sites following the attacks, though limited inspections continue elsewhere and talks with the U.S. focus on down-blending under supervision as part of interim agreements. Peripheral domestic commentary on nuclear options has increased but does not reflect official policy or active breakout efforts. With the program in a damaged, dormant state and diplomatic processes underway into late 2026, the implied probability aligns with the absence of credible indicators for testing in the resolution window.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
6% peluang
$251,515 Vol.
$251,515 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% peluang
$251,515 Vol.
$251,515 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing negotiations and extensive damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.**
Strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering main facilities inoperable or inaccessible, with tunnel entrances backfilled and no reported uranium enrichment activity since. Iran's roughly 400+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely trapped or unverified at damaged locations, limiting any near-term weaponization pathway. IAEA verification has been suspended at affected sites following the attacks, though limited inspections continue elsewhere and talks with the U.S. focus on down-blending under supervision as part of interim agreements.
Peripheral domestic commentary on nuclear options has increased but does not reflect official policy or active breakout efforts. With the program in a damaged, dormant state and diplomatic processes underway into late 2026, the implied probability aligns with the absence of credible indicators for testing in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,515Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing negotiations and extensive damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.**
Strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering main facilities inoperable or inaccessible, with tunnel entrances backfilled and no reported uranium enrichment activity since. Iran's roughly 400+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely trapped or unverified at damaged locations, limiting any near-term weaponization pathway. IAEA verification has been suspended at affected sites following the attacks, though limited inspections continue elsewhere and talks with the U.S. focus on down-blending under supervision as part of interim agreements.
Peripheral domestic commentary on nuclear options has increased but does not reflect official policy or active breakout efforts. With the program in a damaged, dormant state and diplomatic processes underway into late 2026, the implied probability aligns with the absence of credible indicators for testing in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,515Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing negotiations and extensive damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.** Strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering main facilities inoperable or inaccessible, with tunnel entrances backfilled and no reported uranium enrichment activity since. Iran's roughly 400+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely trapped or unverified at damaged locations, limiting any near-term weaponization pathway. IAEA verification has been suspended at affected sites following the attacks, though limited inspections continue elsewhere and talks with the U.S. focus on down-blending under supervision as part of interim agreements. Peripheral domestic commentary on nuclear options has increased but does not reflect official policy or active breakout efforts. With the program in a damaged, dormant state and diplomatic processes underway into late 2026, the implied probability aligns with the absence of credible indicators for testing in the resolution window.
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