Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving much of the approximately 440 kg 60% HEU stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. IAEA verification activities ceased after the February 2026 attacks, creating a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on inventories, centrifuges, and related equipment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with no reported resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at declared sites. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain complex but no evidence of test preparations or explosive testing. Iran’s official statements continue to reaffirm its non-proliferation commitments, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test remains highly unlikely before 2027.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
6% peluang
$251,525 Vol.
$251,525 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% peluang
$251,525 Vol.
$251,525 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving much of the approximately 440 kg 60% HEU stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. IAEA verification activities ceased after the February 2026 attacks, creating a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on inventories, centrifuges, and related equipment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with no reported resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at declared sites. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain complex but no evidence of test preparations or explosive testing. Iran’s official statements continue to reaffirm its non-proliferation commitments, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test remains highly unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$251,525Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving much of the approximately 440 kg 60% HEU stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. IAEA verification activities ceased after the February 2026 attacks, creating a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on inventories, centrifuges, and related equipment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with no reported resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at declared sites. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain complex but no evidence of test preparations or explosive testing. Iran’s official statements continue to reaffirm its non-proliferation commitments, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test remains highly unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$251,525Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving much of the approximately 440 kg 60% HEU stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. IAEA verification activities ceased after the February 2026 attacks, creating a complete loss of continuity of knowledge on inventories, centrifuges, and related equipment. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo pending further talks, with no reported resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at declared sites. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain complex but no evidence of test preparations or explosive testing. Iran’s official statements continue to reaffirm its non-proliferation commitments, supporting trader consensus that a nuclear test remains highly unlikely before 2027.
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