US and Israeli precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Taleghan 2 in late February and early March 2026, severely degraded Tehran's enrichment infrastructure, extending breakout timelines to years and anchoring trader consensus at 92% probability against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently urged inspections of damaged sites amid Iran's restricted access, while Tehran's UN envoy stated on April 2 no plans to resume high-level uranium enrichment. A US-Iran truce announced April 8 has de-escalated tensions, with no seismic, radiological, or intelligence evidence of testing despite debunked earthquake rumors. Diplomatic pressures and institutional monitoring maintain low odds, though rebuilt covert capabilities or regime shifts could theoretically alter trajectories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$170,707 Vol.
$170,707 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$170,707 Vol.
$170,707 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Taleghan 2 in late February and early March 2026, severely degraded Tehran's enrichment infrastructure, extending breakout timelines to years and anchoring trader consensus at 92% probability against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently urged inspections of damaged sites amid Iran's restricted access, while Tehran's UN envoy stated on April 2 no plans to resume high-level uranium enrichment. A US-Iran truce announced April 8 has de-escalated tensions, with no seismic, radiological, or intelligence evidence of testing despite debunked earthquake rumors. Diplomatic pressures and institutional monitoring maintain low odds, though rebuilt covert capabilities or regime shifts could theoretically alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$170,707Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Taleghan 2 in late February and early March 2026, severely degraded Tehran's enrichment infrastructure, extending breakout timelines to years and anchoring trader consensus at 92% probability against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently urged inspections of damaged sites amid Iran's restricted access, while Tehran's UN envoy stated on April 2 no plans to resume high-level uranium enrichment. A US-Iran truce announced April 8 has de-escalated tensions, with no seismic, radiological, or intelligence evidence of testing despite debunked earthquake rumors. Diplomatic pressures and institutional monitoring maintain low odds, though rebuilt covert capabilities or regime shifts could theoretically alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$170,707Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Taleghan 2 in late February and early March 2026, severely degraded Tehran's enrichment infrastructure, extending breakout timelines to years and anchoring trader consensus at 92% probability against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently urged inspections of damaged sites amid Iran's restricted access, while Tehran's UN envoy stated on April 2 no plans to resume high-level uranium enrichment. A US-Iran truce announced April 8 has de-escalated tensions, with no seismic, radiological, or intelligence evidence of testing despite debunked earthquake rumors. Diplomatic pressures and institutional monitoring maintain low odds, though rebuilt covert capabilities or regime shifts could theoretically alter trajectories.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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