Skip to main content
Market icon
GeopolitikΒ·Trump

Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?

Market icon
GeopolitikΒ·Trump

Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?

$1,553,318 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,553,318 Vol.

Polymarket

30 April

$1,019,108 Vol.

31%

30 Juni

$304,928 Vol.

61%

31 Desember

$229,426 Vol.

71%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump claimed on April 17 that Iran agreed to surrender its entire enriched uranium stockpileβ€”termed "nuclear dust"β€”as part of advancing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, but Tehran rejected the assertion, insisting its right to uranium enrichment remains indisputable while levels are negotiable. Reports suggest a compromise under discussion, with the U.S. considering release of $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets for shipment or dilution of the near-weapons-grade stockpile, unverifiable by IAEA inspectors since 2025 strikes damaged key sites. Amid threats of a Strait of Hormuz blockade if no deal by week's end, a second round of talks may occur this weekend, underscoring diplomatic tensions driving trader assessments of near-term resolution timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”.

An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.

To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,553,318
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump claimed on April 17 that Iran agreed to surrender its entire enriched uranium stockpileβ€”termed "nuclear dust"β€”as part of advancing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, but Tehran rejected the assertion, insisting its right to uranium enrichment remains indisputable while levels are negotiable. Reports suggest a compromise under discussion, with the U.S. considering release of $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets for shipment or dilution of the near-weapons-grade stockpile, unverifiable by IAEA inspectors since 2025 strikes damaged key sites. Amid threats of a Strait of Hormuz blockade if no deal by week's end, a second round of talks may occur this weekend, underscoring diplomatic tensions driving trader assessments of near-term resolution timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”.

An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.

To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,553,318
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a β€œYes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichmentβ€”such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholdsβ€”will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 3 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "31 Desember" di 71%, diikuti oleh "30 Juni" di 61%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 71Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 71% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?" telah menghasilkan $1.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?," jelajahi 3 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?" adalah "31 Desember" di 71%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 71% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "30 Juni" di 61%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Iran setuju untuk menyerahkan persediaan uranium yang diperkaya oleh...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.