The United States has adhered to its 1992 nuclear testing moratorium for over 33 years, conducting no explosive nuclear tests amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that certify warheads without detonations. Recent Trump administration rhetoric, including a February 2026 New York Times report on weighing underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site and a March 2026 Reuters statement from a top official not ruling out resumption, reflects concerns over Russia and China's suspected activities, driving trader discussions. However, a December 2025 defense bill ties resumption to foreign tests, while opposition like Rep. Titus's bill underscores political hurdles; no preparations or tests are confirmed, with full readiness potentially taking 24-36 months per expert assessments.
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$639,432 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
1%
September 30, 2026
7%
December 31, 2026
14%
$639,432 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$23,204 Vol.
1%
September 30, 2026
$2,149 Vol.
7%
December 31, 2026
$3,860 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to its 1992 nuclear testing moratorium for over 33 years, conducting no explosive nuclear tests amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that certify warheads without detonations. Recent Trump administration rhetoric, including a February 2026 New York Times report on weighing underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site and a March 2026 Reuters statement from a top official not ruling out resumption, reflects concerns over Russia and China's suspected activities, driving trader discussions. However, a December 2025 defense bill ties resumption to foreign tests, while opposition like Rep. Titus's bill underscores political hurdles; no preparations or tests are confirmed, with full readiness potentially taking 24-36 months per expert assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$639,432Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to its 1992 nuclear testing moratorium for over 33 years, conducting no explosive nuclear tests amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that certify warheads without detonations. Recent Trump administration rhetoric, including a February 2026 New York Times report on weighing underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site and a March 2026 Reuters statement from a top official not ruling out resumption, reflects concerns over Russia and China's suspected activities, driving trader discussions. However, a December 2025 defense bill ties resumption to foreign tests, while opposition like Rep. Titus's bill underscores political hurdles; no preparations or tests are confirmed, with full readiness potentially taking 24-36 months per expert assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$639,432Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has adhered to its 1992 nuclear testing moratorium for over 33 years, conducting no explosive nuclear tests amid ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that certify warheads without detonations. Recent Trump administration rhetoric, including a February 2026 New York Times report on weighing underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site and a March 2026 Reuters statement from a top official not ruling out resumption, reflects concerns over Russia and China's suspected activities, driving trader discussions. However, a December 2025 defense bill ties resumption to foreign tests, while opposition like Rep. Titus's bill underscores political hurdles; no preparations or tests are confirmed, with full readiness potentially taking 24-36 months per expert assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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