The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and computer simulations to certify warhead safety and performance. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though Energy Department and STRATCOM officials later clarified that this referred primarily to non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site would require up to 36 months for an underground test, while domestic and international political constraints, including CTBT commitments observed by most states, continue to shape policy. No explosive test has occurred, and administration statements through early 2026 have not altered the standing moratorium.
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$667,612 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 Juni 2026
2%
30 September 2026
5%
31 Desember 2026
9%
$667,612 Vol.
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$40,220 Vol.
2%
30 September 2026
$6,656 Vol.
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31 Desember 2026
$10,517 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and computer simulations to certify warhead safety and performance. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though Energy Department and STRATCOM officials later clarified that this referred primarily to non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site would require up to 36 months for an underground test, while domestic and international political constraints, including CTBT commitments observed by most states, continue to shape policy. No explosive test has occurred, and administration statements through early 2026 have not altered the standing moratorium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$667,612Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and computer simulations to certify warhead safety and performance. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though Energy Department and STRATCOM officials later clarified that this referred primarily to non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site would require up to 36 months for an underground test, while domestic and international political constraints, including CTBT commitments observed by most states, continue to shape policy. No explosive test has occurred, and administration statements through early 2026 have not altered the standing moratorium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,612Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and computer simulations to certify warhead safety and performance. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with other nations amid concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, though Energy Department and STRATCOM officials later clarified that this referred primarily to non-explosive or subcritical experiments rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site would require up to 36 months for an underground test, while domestic and international political constraints, including CTBT commitments observed by most states, continue to shape policy. No explosive test has occurred, and administration statements through early 2026 have not altered the standing moratorium.
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