President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities sparked initial market attention, yet subsequent administration statements have emphasized non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship programs rather than yield-producing detonations. Energy Department and lab certifications continue to affirm arsenal reliability without explosive tests, consistent with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. No full-scale U.S. nuclear test has occurred, and officials have not outlined timelines or approvals for one at the Nevada National Security Site. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term resolution because procedural, technical, and diplomatic barriers remain high, with any shift likely requiring explicit policy changes or new intelligence developments before key dates like March 2026.
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$794,203 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
5%
$794,203 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,435 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$75,957 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities sparked initial market attention, yet subsequent administration statements have emphasized non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship programs rather than yield-producing detonations. Energy Department and lab certifications continue to affirm arsenal reliability without explosive tests, consistent with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. No full-scale U.S. nuclear test has occurred, and officials have not outlined timelines or approvals for one at the Nevada National Security Site. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term resolution because procedural, technical, and diplomatic barriers remain high, with any shift likely requiring explicit policy changes or new intelligence developments before key dates like March 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,203Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities sparked initial market attention, yet subsequent administration statements have emphasized non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship programs rather than yield-producing detonations. Energy Department and lab certifications continue to affirm arsenal reliability without explosive tests, consistent with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. No full-scale U.S. nuclear test has occurred, and officials have not outlined timelines or approvals for one at the Nevada National Security Site. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term resolution because procedural, technical, and diplomatic barriers remain high, with any shift likely requiring explicit policy changes or new intelligence developments before key dates like March 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,203Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities sparked initial market attention, yet subsequent administration statements have emphasized non-explosive systems tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship programs rather than yield-producing detonations. Energy Department and lab certifications continue to affirm arsenal reliability without explosive tests, consistent with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. No full-scale U.S. nuclear test has occurred, and officials have not outlined timelines or approvals for one at the Nevada National Security Site. Traders assign low probabilities to near-term resolution because procedural, technical, and diplomatic barriers remain high, with any shift likely requiring explicit policy changes or new intelligence developments before key dates like March 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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