Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$1,342,565 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 Juni 2026
2%
30 September 2026
9%
31 Desember 2026
12%
$1,342,565 Vol.
30 Juni 2026
$4,433 Vol.
2%
30 September 2026
$1,400 Vol.
9%
31 Desember 2026
$12,159 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,342,565Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,342,565Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a low probability on Russia conducting a verifiable nuclear explosive test by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of official announcements, site preparations at Novaya Zemlya, or seismic indicators in recent weeks. Russia maintains a de facto moratorium since its last test in 1990, despite revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 amid Ukraine escalation signals. Key recent developments include early April exercises with RS-24 Yars ICBMs capable of nuclear payloads and U.S. warnings of potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons, but neither involves detonation. Barriers include international backlash, arms control norms, and no strategic imperative; odds could shift with Ukraine battlefield reversals, doctrine updates, or sanctions defiance before year-end resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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