Russia’s ongoing military operations and resource commitments in Ukraine, including intensified efforts to secure Donbas by late 2026 amid slowed advances and Ukrainian counteractions, represent the primary factor supporting the 94.5% implied probability against a new invasion elsewhere this year. Economic strains from fuel shortages, inflation, and infrastructure strikes further limit Moscow’s capacity for additional conventional campaigns, while recent assessments highlight hybrid tactics such as sabotage and limited provocations over full-scale troop deployments toward NATO borders. Upcoming State Duma elections and diplomatic signals around energy infrastructure and negotiations reinforce this positioning, with traders viewing the absence of visible preparations or border buildups as key constraints on escalation beyond the current theater.