Diplomatic momentum around the Abraham Accords and U.S. pressure for expanded normalization remain the central drivers shaping trader views on additional recognitions by year-end 2026. Recent steps include Kazakhstan’s formal entry into the framework, Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland paired with its reciprocal pledge, and Venezuela’s August 2026 renewal of consular ties. Ongoing bilateral security talks with Syria, coupled with reported U.S. outreach to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others tied to Iran-related negotiations, add near-term catalysts. Persistent barriers for remaining Arab League and OIC members center on linkage to Palestinian statehood timelines and regional security conditions, while procedural or symbolic moves by a few holdouts could still shift probabilities before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
$648,106 Vol.

Qatar
33%

Venezuela
13%

Saudi Arabia
11%

Indonesia
10%

Kuwait
8%

Tunisia
7%

Syria
7%

Iran
6%

Lebanon
11%

North Korea
18%

Malaysia
5%

Pakistan
5%

Afghanistan
7%

Iraq
4%

Bangladesh
3%

Cuba
3%
$648,106 Vol.

Qatar
33%

Venezuela
13%

Saudi Arabia
11%

Indonesia
10%

Kuwait
8%

Tunisia
7%

Syria
7%

Iran
6%

Lebanon
11%

North Korea
18%

Malaysia
5%

Pakistan
5%

Afghanistan
7%

Iraq
4%

Bangladesh
3%

Cuba
3%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic momentum around the Abraham Accords and U.S. pressure for expanded normalization remain the central drivers shaping trader views on additional recognitions by year-end 2026. Recent steps include Kazakhstan’s formal entry into the framework, Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland paired with its reciprocal pledge, and Venezuela’s August 2026 renewal of consular ties. Ongoing bilateral security talks with Syria, coupled with reported U.S. outreach to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others tied to Iran-related negotiations, add near-term catalysts. Persistent barriers for remaining Arab League and OIC members center on linkage to Palestinian statehood timelines and regional security conditions, while procedural or symbolic moves by a few holdouts could still shift probabilities before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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