Skip to main content

Untuk trading di AS, kunjungi polymarket.us

icon for Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?
Politik·Israel

Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?

icon for Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?
Politik·Israel

Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

4 82.7%

6 10.2%

5 4.6%

8 <1%

Polymarket

$7,412,007 Vol.

4 82.7%

6 10.2%

5 4.6%

8 <1%

Polymarket

$7,412,007 Vol.

4

$1,234,526 Vol.

83%

5

$548,410 Vol.

5%

6

$651,961 Vol.

10%

7

$618,808 Vol.

1%

8

$530,782 Vol.

1%

9

$237,204 Vol.

1%

10

$401,003 Vol.

<1%

11

$137,230 Vol.

<1%

12

$227,673 Vol.

<1%

13

$352,390 Vol.

<1%

14

$190,808 Vol.

<1%

15+

$192,703 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Israel's 2026 military actions have centered on Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza amid the February–March war with Iran and its allies, followed by targeted responses to Hezbollah and Hamas violations.** Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian sites in late February, including leadership targets, triggered regional exchanges that also involved Lebanese and Palestinian territories. Subsequent Israeli operations in Lebanon, including major April strikes and smaller September responses to drone attacks, plus repeated Gaza raids and airstrikes through early September to neutralize threats near ceasefire lines, have shaped the current count. Trader consensus around four countries reflects limited further escalation after June de-escalation with Iran, ongoing but contained Lebanon operations, and persistent but geographically narrow Gaza activity, with little evidence of broader strikes into additional states like Syria or Yemen in recent months. Scheduled diplomatic or ceasefire developments could still alter the total before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,412,007
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Israel's 2026 military actions have centered on Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza amid the February–March war with Iran and its allies, followed by targeted responses to Hezbollah and Hamas violations.** Joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian sites in late February, including leadership targets, triggered regional exchanges that also involved Lebanese and Palestinian territories. Subsequent Israeli operations in Lebanon, including major April strikes and smaller September responses to drone attacks, plus repeated Gaza raids and airstrikes through early September to neutralize threats near ceasefire lines, have shaped the current count. Trader consensus around four countries reflects limited further escalation after June de-escalation with Iran, ongoing but contained Lebanon operations, and persistent but geographically narrow Gaza activity, with little evidence of broader strikes into additional states like Syria or Yemen in recent months. Scheduled diplomatic or ceasefire developments could still alter the total before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,412,007
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Terkait

icon for Apakah AS akan menyerang 8 negara pada tahun 2026?

Apakah AS akan menyerang 8 negara pada tahun 2026?

62%
Ya
icon for Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

14%
icon for Serangan AS terhadap Meksiko sebelum 31 Desember?

Serangan AS terhadap Meksiko sebelum 31 Desember?

10%
Ya

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 16 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "4" di 83%, diikuti oleh "6" di 10%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 83¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 83% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?" telah menghasilkan $7.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 13, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?," jelajahi 16 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?" adalah "4" di 83%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 83% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "6" di 10%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berapa banyak negara yang akan diserang Israel pada tahun 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.