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icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitik·Gencatan Senjata Iran

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitik·Gencatan Senjata Iran

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8,448,735 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$8,448,735 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$261,314 Vol.

1%

December 31

$225,628 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement signed in late June 2026 established pilot zones for limited Israeli withdrawals from two small areas in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming security responsibility there as an initial step. Full or phased Israeli redeployment remains conditioned on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state groups by Lebanese forces, without a fixed timetable, as outlined in the accompanying security annex. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that the security zone will be maintained until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, while Hezbollah has rejected the terms and demanded unconditional withdrawal. Subsequent implementation of even the pilot areas has faced delays tied to Lebanese army preparation and verification processes. No major new military or diplomatic shifts have occurred since the June accord, leaving trader assessments focused on the pace of any Lebanese army progress and risks of renewed escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,448,735
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement signed in late June 2026 established pilot zones for limited Israeli withdrawals from two small areas in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming security responsibility there as an initial step. Full or phased Israeli redeployment remains conditioned on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state groups by Lebanese forces, without a fixed timetable, as outlined in the accompanying security annex. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated that the security zone will be maintained until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, while Hezbollah has rejected the terms and demanded unconditional withdrawal. Subsequent implementation of even the pilot areas has faced delays tied to Lebanese army preparation and verification processes. No major new military or diplomatic shifts have occurred since the June accord, leaving trader assessments focused on the pace of any Lebanese army progress and risks of renewed escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,448,735
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "December 31" di 6%, diikuti oleh "September 30" di 1%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 6¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 6% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" telah menghasilkan $8.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" adalah "December 31" di hanya 6%, dengan "September 30" mengejar ketat di 1%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.