US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, substantially damaging above-ground facilities and limiting access to stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA inspectors withdrew from struck locations after the initial campaign, and subsequent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment activities, with breakout timelines extended to roughly one year or longer. Ongoing diplomatic talks have produced no agreement on facility dismantlement, material disposition, or permanent verification measures, while Iranian officials report enriched uranium remains buried under rubble with no active recovery plans. These developments sustain trader consensus reflected in the 92 percent probability assigned to no nuclear weapon acquisition before 2027.