**EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving Nord Stream 1 and 2, while the German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly stated it will prevent reactivation to maintain pressure on Russia during the Ukraine conflict.** Most pipeline sections remain inoperable after the 2022 explosions, with only one Nord Stream 2 line intact, and ongoing German investigations have produced indictments alleging Ukrainian state-linked sabotage. These factors, combined with Europe's diversified LNG supplies and lack of domestic political support for resuming Russian gas flows, underpin traders' 97.4% implied probability against startup before 2027. A swift end to the conflict that triggers broad sanctions relief or a shift in Berlin's coalition stance could still alter the timeline, though neither appears imminent within the remaining months of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3% peluang
$162,468 Vol.
$162,468 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
$162,468 Vol.
$162,468 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving Nord Stream 1 and 2, while the German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly stated it will prevent reactivation to maintain pressure on Russia during the Ukraine conflict.** Most pipeline sections remain inoperable after the 2022 explosions, with only one Nord Stream 2 line intact, and ongoing German investigations have produced indictments alleging Ukrainian state-linked sabotage. These factors, combined with Europe's diversified LNG supplies and lack of domestic political support for resuming Russian gas flows, underpin traders' 97.4% implied probability against startup before 2027. A swift end to the conflict that triggers broad sanctions relief or a shift in Berlin's coalition stance could still alter the timeline, though neither appears imminent within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$162,468Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving Nord Stream 1 and 2, while the German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly stated it will prevent reactivation to maintain pressure on Russia during the Ukraine conflict.** Most pipeline sections remain inoperable after the 2022 explosions, with only one Nord Stream 2 line intact, and ongoing German investigations have produced indictments alleging Ukrainian state-linked sabotage. These factors, combined with Europe's diversified LNG supplies and lack of domestic political support for resuming Russian gas flows, underpin traders' 97.4% implied probability against startup before 2027. A swift end to the conflict that triggers broad sanctions relief or a shift in Berlin's coalition stance could still alter the timeline, though neither appears imminent within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$162,468Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**EU sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving Nord Stream 1 and 2, while the German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly stated it will prevent reactivation to maintain pressure on Russia during the Ukraine conflict.** Most pipeline sections remain inoperable after the 2022 explosions, with only one Nord Stream 2 line intact, and ongoing German investigations have produced indictments alleging Ukrainian state-linked sabotage. These factors, combined with Europe's diversified LNG supplies and lack of domestic political support for resuming Russian gas flows, underpin traders' 97.4% implied probability against startup before 2027. A swift end to the conflict that triggers broad sanctions relief or a shift in Berlin's coalition stance could still alter the timeline, though neither appears imminent within the remaining months of 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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