Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and repeated official reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession continue to shape trader views, with no signals that Kyiv would accept a pre-2027 freeze. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged sustained military support while designating Ukraine a security contributor, yet blocked formal invitation language amid U.S. and select European reservations. Ongoing Trump-mediated talks in September 2026 focus on ceasefire terms rather than accession limits, and Ukrainian leaders have rejected any such constraint. Recent comments from former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi questioning near-term membership reflected personal assessment, not policy shifts. These factors sustain the 92.5% implied probability that no agreement to defer NATO entry will emerge before 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui8% peluang
$153,490 Vol.
$153,490 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% peluang
$153,490 Vol.
$153,490 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and repeated official reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession continue to shape trader views, with no signals that Kyiv would accept a pre-2027 freeze. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged sustained military support while designating Ukraine a security contributor, yet blocked formal invitation language amid U.S. and select European reservations. Ongoing Trump-mediated talks in September 2026 focus on ceasefire terms rather than accession limits, and Ukrainian leaders have rejected any such constraint. Recent comments from former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi questioning near-term membership reflected personal assessment, not policy shifts. These factors sustain the 92.5% implied probability that no agreement to defer NATO entry will emerge before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$153,490Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and repeated official reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession continue to shape trader views, with no signals that Kyiv would accept a pre-2027 freeze. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged sustained military support while designating Ukraine a security contributor, yet blocked formal invitation language amid U.S. and select European reservations. Ongoing Trump-mediated talks in September 2026 focus on ceasefire terms rather than accession limits, and Ukrainian leaders have rejected any such constraint. Recent comments from former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi questioning near-term membership reflected personal assessment, not policy shifts. These factors sustain the 92.5% implied probability that no agreement to defer NATO entry will emerge before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$153,490Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and repeated official reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession continue to shape trader views, with no signals that Kyiv would accept a pre-2027 freeze. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged sustained military support while designating Ukraine a security contributor, yet blocked formal invitation language amid U.S. and select European reservations. Ongoing Trump-mediated talks in September 2026 focus on ceasefire terms rather than accession limits, and Ukrainian leaders have rejected any such constraint. Recent comments from former commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi questioning near-term membership reflected personal assessment, not policy shifts. These factors sustain the 92.5% implied probability that no agreement to defer NATO entry will emerge before 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan