NATO has not faced an armed attack on alliance territory since the war in Ukraine began, and recent developments reinforce expectations that this threshold will remain unbreached through 2026. Russian forces continue offensive operations inside Ukraine with missile and drone strikes, while conducting nuclear exercises and issuing rhetoric aimed at NATO capitals, yet these actions have stayed below the collective-defense line. Border incidents involving drones or airspace violations have prompted Article 4 consultations but not Article 5 invocation, consistent with allies’ strict historical reading of the clause. Diplomatic efforts, including attempted short-term truces and prisoner exchanges in May 2026, alongside NATO’s enhanced eastern-flank deployments, have contained direct escalation risks. Traders therefore assign an 89.5% implied probability to no invocation before 2027, reflecting the pattern of hybrid pressure without crossing into overt aggression against member states.