Trader consensus implies an 88% probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable weapons programs despite recent rhetorical escalations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 3 statements signaling eventual pursuit of nuclear autonomy amid Russian threats sparked debate, but US opposition to independent European arsenals and talks limited to French deterrence sharing underscore political barriers. Ongoing discussions in Japan and South Korea over North Korean missile tests and plutonium stockpiles remain hypothetical, constrained by NPT commitments, extended US deterrence dialogues like the February US-Japan meeting, and congressional actions such as the April No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act. With under nine months left, technical hurdles to breakout capability sustain the heavy "No" pricing.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus implies an 88% probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable weapons programs despite recent rhetorical escalations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 3 statements signaling eventual pursuit of nuclear autonomy amid Russian threats sparked debate, but US opposition to independent European arsenals and talks limited to French deterrence sharing underscore political barriers. Ongoing discussions in Japan and South Korea over North Korean missile tests and plutonium stockpiles remain hypothetical, constrained by NPT commitments, extended US deterrence dialogues like the February US-Japan meeting, and congressional actions such as the April No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act. With under nine months left, technical hurdles to breakout capability sustain the heavy "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,178Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus implies an 88% probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable weapons programs despite recent rhetorical escalations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 3 statements signaling eventual pursuit of nuclear autonomy amid Russian threats sparked debate, but US opposition to independent European arsenals and talks limited to French deterrence sharing underscore political barriers. Ongoing discussions in Japan and South Korea over North Korean missile tests and plutonium stockpiles remain hypothetical, constrained by NPT commitments, extended US deterrence dialogues like the February US-Japan meeting, and congressional actions such as the April No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act. With under nine months left, technical hurdles to breakout capability sustain the heavy "No" pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$6,178Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 88% probability that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of verifiable weapons programs despite recent rhetorical escalations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 3 statements signaling eventual pursuit of nuclear autonomy amid Russian threats sparked debate, but US opposition to independent European arsenals and talks limited to French deterrence sharing underscore political barriers. Ongoing discussions in Japan and South Korea over North Korean missile tests and plutonium stockpiles remain hypothetical, constrained by NPT commitments, extended US deterrence dialogues like the February US-Japan meeting, and congressional actions such as the April No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act. With under nine months left, technical hurdles to breakout capability sustain the heavy "No" pricing.
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