A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
>1.45ºC 42%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
1.42–1.45ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 41%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
41%
1.34–1.37ºC
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
41%
>1.45ºC
42%
>1.45ºC 42%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
1.42–1.45ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 41%
BARU
BARU
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
41%
>1.45ºC
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C and rising rapidly, is the main driver elevating trader expectations for August 2026 global temperature anomalies near or above 1.34°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean warmth, including July 2026 tying the warmest July on record at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, combines with long-term anthropogenic trends to support elevated readings, while model consensus points to near-universal above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Close market-implied odds across the 1.34–1.45°C bins reflect uncertainty in the exact monthly peak, driven by variability in El Niño intensification timing, atmospheric responses, and potential short-term cooling influences before full seasonal impacts emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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