**Global seismicity data positions the 14–16 range as the market leader.** USGS historical records show an average of roughly 15 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes annually worldwide, with year-to-date counts in 2026 reaching 11–12 by late September. This pace aligns closely with the 14–16 band once the remaining months are included. Recent months have featured typical activity levels, including several M7.0–7.8 events in the Philippines, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Colombia, without sustained clustering or anomalous rates that would push totals significantly higher. No new M7+ events have occurred in September, and official monitoring agencies report no shifts in tectonic stress patterns or aftershock sequences likely to alter the near-term outlook. Trader consensus reflected in the 58% implied probability for 14–16 therefore tracks both the long-term baseline and current observational trends, while the lower-probability tails account for possible late-year variability inherent in earthquake occurrence.