Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS, aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate clear skies and southerly flow supporting a Madrid high near 33–34°C on September 24, with minimal precipitation risk and strong daytime insolation under stable high pressure. This places the market-implied distribution tightly clustered between 31–36°C, reflecting modest ensemble spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large synoptic shifts. Historical late-September averages near 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth, yet the narrow 1°C resolution bands and potential for minor wind or urban-heat adjustments sustain balanced trader probabilities across the central outcomes. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range further before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
34°C 56%
32°C 28%
31°C 23%
35°C 23%
BARU
BARU
Sep 24, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
23%
32°C
28%
33°C
22%
34°C
56%
35°C
23%
36°C
11%
37°C
5%
38°C
5%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 56%
32°C 28%
31°C 23%
35°C 23%
BARU
BARU
Sep 24, 2026
29°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
23%
32°C
$0 Vol.
28%
33°C
$0 Vol.
22%
34°C
$13 Vol.
56%
35°C
$0 Vol.
23%
36°C
$0 Vol.
11%
37°C
$0 Vol.
5%
38°C
$0 Vol.
5%
39°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS, aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate clear skies and southerly flow supporting a Madrid high near 33–34°C on September 24, with minimal precipitation risk and strong daytime insolation under stable high pressure. This places the market-implied distribution tightly clustered between 31–36°C, reflecting modest ensemble spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large synoptic shifts. Historical late-September averages near 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth, yet the narrow 1°C resolution bands and potential for minor wind or urban-heat adjustments sustain balanced trader probabilities across the central outcomes. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range further before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$13Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS, aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate clear skies and southerly flow supporting a Madrid high near 33–34°C on September 24, with minimal precipitation risk and strong daytime insolation under stable high pressure. This places the market-implied distribution tightly clustered between 31–36°C, reflecting modest ensemble spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large synoptic shifts. Historical late-September averages near 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth, yet the narrow 1°C resolution bands and potential for minor wind or urban-heat adjustments sustain balanced trader probabilities across the central outcomes. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range further before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS, aligned with AEMET guidance, indicate clear skies and southerly flow supporting a Madrid high near 33–34°C on September 24, with minimal precipitation risk and strong daytime insolation under stable high pressure. This places the market-implied distribution tightly clustered between 31–36°C, reflecting modest ensemble spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing rather than large synoptic shifts. Historical late-September averages near 25°C underscore the anomalous warmth, yet the narrow 1°C resolution bands and potential for minor wind or urban-heat adjustments sustain balanced trader probabilities across the central outcomes. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range further before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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