Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and ACCESS-G indicate a high-pressure ridge building over New Zealand, promoting clear skies and light northwesterly flow over Wellington on September 24. This setup supports maximum temperatures of 12–13°C under minimal cloud cover and modest insolation, aligning with the market’s dominant 13°C (54.5%) and 14°C (37.5%) outcomes. Southerly winds earlier in the week are easing, reducing mixing and allowing diurnal warming without significant advection of cooler maritime air. Updated runs show little model spread, limiting upside risk above 15°C or downside below 12°C. Traders are weighting these near-term model solutions heavily ahead of final MetService observations that will resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
13°C 56%
14°C 37%
12°C 5%
15°C 3%
BARU
BARU
Sep 24, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
5%
13°C
56%
14°C
37%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 56%
14°C 37%
12°C 5%
15°C 3%
BARU
BARU
Sep 24, 2026
8°C or below
$17 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
2%
11°C
$0 Vol.
2%
12°C
$327 Vol.
5%
13°C
$487 Vol.
56%
14°C
$362 Vol.
37%
15°C
$280 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$227 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and ACCESS-G indicate a high-pressure ridge building over New Zealand, promoting clear skies and light northwesterly flow over Wellington on September 24. This setup supports maximum temperatures of 12–13°C under minimal cloud cover and modest insolation, aligning with the market’s dominant 13°C (54.5%) and 14°C (37.5%) outcomes. Southerly winds earlier in the week are easing, reducing mixing and allowing diurnal warming without significant advection of cooler maritime air. Updated runs show little model spread, limiting upside risk above 15°C or downside below 12°C. Traders are weighting these near-term model solutions heavily ahead of final MetService observations that will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,059Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and ACCESS-G indicate a high-pressure ridge building over New Zealand, promoting clear skies and light northwesterly flow over Wellington on September 24. This setup supports maximum temperatures of 12–13°C under minimal cloud cover and modest insolation, aligning with the market’s dominant 13°C (54.5%) and 14°C (37.5%) outcomes. Southerly winds earlier in the week are easing, reducing mixing and allowing diurnal warming without significant advection of cooler maritime air. Updated runs show little model spread, limiting upside risk above 15°C or downside below 12°C. Traders are weighting these near-term model solutions heavily ahead of final MetService observations that will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,059Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models including GFS, ECMWF, and ACCESS-G indicate a high-pressure ridge building over New Zealand, promoting clear skies and light northwesterly flow over Wellington on September 24. This setup supports maximum temperatures of 12–13°C under minimal cloud cover and modest insolation, aligning with the market’s dominant 13°C (54.5%) and 14°C (37.5%) outcomes. Southerly winds earlier in the week are easing, reducing mixing and allowing diurnal warming without significant advection of cooler maritime air. Updated runs show little model spread, limiting upside risk above 15°C or downside below 12°C. Traders are weighting these near-term model solutions heavily ahead of final MetService observations that will resolve the market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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