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icon for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

icon for New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

9% peluang
Polymarket

$243,750 Vol.

9% peluang
Polymarket

$243,750 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Strong genomic surveillance worldwide shows no SARS-CoV-2 lineage currently meets WHO or ECDC criteria for a variant of concern, supporting traders’ 91% implied probability that none will be designated before 2027. Existing strains such as BA.3.2 and sublineages of NB.1.8.1 or XFG remain classified only as variants under monitoring or interest, with limited immune escape, no marked rise in severity, and low overall prevalence in the United States and Europe through mid-2026. BA.3.2 detections peaked regionally in late 2025 but stabilized without rapid dominance or public-health impact. Continued population immunity from prior infections and updated vaccines, alongside routine monitoring of wastewater and traveler data, reduces the near-term likelihood of a high-impact shift. Any sudden evolution could still alter this outlook, yet recent patterns indicate gradual change rather than abrupt escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volume
$243,750
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Strong genomic surveillance worldwide shows no SARS-CoV-2 lineage currently meets WHO or ECDC criteria for a variant of concern, supporting traders’ 91% implied probability that none will be designated before 2027. Existing strains such as BA.3.2 and sublineages of NB.1.8.1 or XFG remain classified only as variants under monitoring or interest, with limited immune escape, no marked rise in severity, and low overall prevalence in the United States and Europe through mid-2026. BA.3.2 detections peaked regionally in late 2025 but stabilized without rapid dominance or public-health impact. Continued population immunity from prior infections and updated vaccines, alongside routine monitoring of wastewater and traveler data, reduces the near-term likelihood of a high-impact shift. Any sudden evolution could still alter this outlook, yet recent patterns indicate gradual change rather than abrupt escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Volume
$243,750
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 9% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 9¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 9% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $243.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 1, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" adalah 9% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 9% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "New COVID variant of concern before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.