Persistent high global CO2 emissions, tracking near record rates with only modest renewable growth, continue to deplete the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C at a steady pace, leaving the Climate Clock's projected deadline—currently around mid-2029 based on recent updates—unlikely to shift materially by December 2026. Human-induced warming reached approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 at a record rate of 0.27°C per decade, with a strengthening El Niño in 2026 pushing annual temperatures toward or above 1.5°C in multiple datasets, though long-term thresholds depend on cumulative emissions rather than single-year spikes. Trader consensus at 66.5% for no change reflects this emissions inertia and absence of rapid decarbonization breakthroughs, despite ongoing model refinements from sources like the Global Carbon Project. Upcoming COP30 outcomes and 2026 emissions data releases could introduce volatility if they signal accelerated reductions.
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Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
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Jan 1, 2027
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Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Persistent high global CO2 emissions, tracking near record rates with only modest renewable growth, continue to deplete the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C at a steady pace, leaving the Climate Clock's projected deadline—currently around mid-2029 based on recent updates—unlikely to shift materially by December 2026. Human-induced warming reached approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 at a record rate of 0.27°C per decade, with a strengthening El Niño in 2026 pushing annual temperatures toward or above 1.5°C in multiple datasets, though long-term thresholds depend on cumulative emissions rather than single-year spikes. Trader consensus at 66.5% for no change reflects this emissions inertia and absence of rapid decarbonization breakthroughs, despite ongoing model refinements from sources like the Global Carbon Project. Upcoming COP30 outcomes and 2026 emissions data releases could introduce volatility if they signal accelerated reductions.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$2,023Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2029Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Persistent high global CO2 emissions, tracking near record rates with only modest renewable growth, continue to deplete the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C at a steady pace, leaving the Climate Clock's projected deadline—currently around mid-2029 based on recent updates—unlikely to shift materially by December 2026. Human-induced warming reached approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 at a record rate of 0.27°C per decade, with a strengthening El Niño in 2026 pushing annual temperatures toward or above 1.5°C in multiple datasets, though long-term thresholds depend on cumulative emissions rather than single-year spikes. Trader consensus at 66.5% for no change reflects this emissions inertia and absence of rapid decarbonization breakthroughs, despite ongoing model refinements from sources like the Global Carbon Project. Upcoming COP30 outcomes and 2026 emissions data releases could introduce volatility if they signal accelerated reductions.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$2,023Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent high global CO2 emissions, tracking near record rates with only modest renewable growth, continue to deplete the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C at a steady pace, leaving the Climate Clock's projected deadline—currently around mid-2029 based on recent updates—unlikely to shift materially by December 2026. Human-induced warming reached approximately 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 at a record rate of 0.27°C per decade, with a strengthening El Niño in 2026 pushing annual temperatures toward or above 1.5°C in multiple datasets, though long-term thresholds depend on cumulative emissions rather than single-year spikes. Trader consensus at 66.5% for no change reflects this emissions inertia and absence of rapid decarbonization breakthroughs, despite ongoing model refinements from sources like the Global Carbon Project. Upcoming COP30 outcomes and 2026 emissions data releases could introduce volatility if they signal accelerated reductions.
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