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icon for Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?
Teknologi·Budaya

Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?

icon for Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?
Teknologi·Budaya

Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?

Ya

3% peluang
Polymarket

$1,949,345 Vol.

Ya

3% peluang
Polymarket

$1,949,345 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,949,345
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" for a human moon landing in 2026 (97% implied probability) due to confirmed schedule shifts in NASA's Artemis program.** Artemis II, the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo, launched successfully on April 1, 2026, and returned in mid-April, validating SLS and Orion systems but without any landing capability. NASA then restructured the sequence in February 2026: the original Artemis III landing target moved to Artemis IV in 2028, while a redesigned Artemis III became a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration flight focused on docking tests with lunar landers from SpaceX (Starship HLS) and Blue Origin (Blue Moon). Starship lunar landing hardware remains in early development, with uncrewed demos and crewed surface operations not slated before late 2027 at the earliest. No other agency or commercial effort has demonstrated the necessary orbital refueling, lander readiness, or safety certifications for a 2026 crewed touchdown. Historical Artemis delays—driven by technical integration, testing shortfalls, and supply chain issues—reinforce the timeline. While near-term breakthroughs in private Starship flights or unexpected international acceleration could theoretically compress schedules, realistic barriers like regulatory approvals, vehicle certification, and the remaining six months of 2026 make any reversal highly improbable. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these verified program milestones rather than speculation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,949,397
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?" di 3%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 3¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 3% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?" telah menghasilkan $1.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 7, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?" adalah "Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?" di hanya 3%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pendaratan manusia di bulan pada tahun 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.