Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No" at 63.5% for SpaceX achieving fully reusable Starship before 2027, driven by persistent challenges with the orbital heat shield on the upper stage, which has repeatedly lost tiles during reentry despite soft ocean landings in recent tests. While the Super Heavy booster achieved first reuse in Flight 11 last October—marking progress toward full-stack reusability—Elon Musk highlighted the heat shield as the "single biggest remaining problem" in February 2026 interviews, requiring rapid turnaround without laborious inspections of 40,000 tiles. The first Starship V3 prototype began ground testing in late February, with static fires for Flight 12 completed ahead of a potential late April launch, but historical delays and the tight 2026 timeline for demonstrating booster/ship catches and orbital refueling temper optimism among capital-backed traders. Key catalysts include upcoming V3 flight outcomes and FAA licensing pace.