Recent milestones with Starship V3, including Flight 13’s intact heat shield performance and precise suborbital landing in July 2026, have advanced reusability goals, yet traders assign a 58% probability against full reuse before 2027. The primary driver is the compressed timeline: while the Super Heavy booster has been caught multiple times, the upper stage ship catch with the launch tower remains unattempted, with Elon Musk targeting it in coming months and the first ship reflight only by late 2026 or early 2027. Saltwater recovery of the July vehicle underscores corrosion risks, and experts note heat-shield maintenance challenges persist despite Musk’s claims of resolution. Upcoming tower-catch attempts and refueling demos represent key swing factors, but iterative testing and regulatory approvals make rapid, operational full reusability by year-end improbable.