Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, charges, or arrest warrant against the former president despite earlier probes. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard referred Obama-era intelligence officials to Attorney General Pam Bondi over alleged Russia hoax misconduct tied to 2016 election surveillance claims, prompting grand jury investigations—including a Florida probe into potential conspiracy announced April 1, 2026—that have yielded no public advancement toward prosecuting Obama personally. Legal barriers for former presidents, lack of new evidence, and historical precedent against such high-profile indictments underpin the low probability, though fresh declassifications or special counsel findings could shift odds.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, charges, or arrest warrant against the former president despite earlier probes. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard referred Obama-era intelligence officials to Attorney General Pam Bondi over alleged Russia hoax misconduct tied to 2016 election surveillance claims, prompting grand jury investigations—including a Florida probe into potential conspiracy announced April 1, 2026—that have yielded no public advancement toward prosecuting Obama personally. Legal barriers for former presidents, lack of new evidence, and historical precedent against such high-profile indictments underpin the low probability, though fresh declassifications or special counsel findings could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$4,096Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, charges, or arrest warrant against the former president despite earlier probes. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard referred Obama-era intelligence officials to Attorney General Pam Bondi over alleged Russia hoax misconduct tied to 2016 election surveillance claims, prompting grand jury investigations—including a Florida probe into potential conspiracy announced April 1, 2026—that have yielded no public advancement toward prosecuting Obama personally. Legal barriers for former presidents, lack of new evidence, and historical precedent against such high-profile indictments underpin the low probability, though fresh declassifications or special counsel findings could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,096Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% for Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any DOJ indictment, charges, or arrest warrant against the former president despite earlier probes. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard referred Obama-era intelligence officials to Attorney General Pam Bondi over alleged Russia hoax misconduct tied to 2016 election surveillance claims, prompting grand jury investigations—including a Florida probe into potential conspiracy announced April 1, 2026—that have yielded no public advancement toward prosecuting Obama personally. Legal barriers for former presidents, lack of new evidence, and historical precedent against such high-profile indictments underpin the low probability, though fresh declassifications or special counsel findings could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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