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icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politik·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politik·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$417,597 Vol.

Polymarket

$417,597 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$165,423 Vol.

10%

John Brennan

$22,822 Vol.

20%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,830 Vol.

12%

Adam Schiff

$17,036 Vol.

4%

Barack Obama

$29,681 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,841 Vol.

8%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,385 Vol.

18%

James Clapper

$8,391 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$3,637 Vol.

3%

Hillary Clinton

$26,360 Vol.

2%

Bill Clinton

$2,889 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

8%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

10%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$39,435 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,949 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

1%

Pam Bondi

$2,189 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,914 Vol.

7%

Kash Patel

$607 Vol.

1%

Brandon Johnson

$3,290 Vol.

10%

Lisa Cook

$4,042 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$7,597 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. intelligence and health officials facing congressional scrutiny or potential contempt proceedings, alongside activists subject to immigration enforcement. John Brennan and James Comey attract attention due to probes into prior official actions, while Mahmoud Khalil's prior ICE detention in 2025 and related court developments keep his shares active. Anthony Fauci's July 2026 Senate appearance, during which he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly on COVID-19 topics, has reinforced positioning around former administration figures. Broader enforcement patterns, including federal fraud actions and international cases such as Benjamin Netanyahu's ongoing trials, inform assessments, though most listed individuals carry low implied probabilities of arrest by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Markets price in uncertainty over whether investigations will advance to physical custody within the window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$417,597
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on former U.S. intelligence and health officials facing congressional scrutiny or potential contempt proceedings, alongside activists subject to immigration enforcement. John Brennan and James Comey attract attention due to probes into prior official actions, while Mahmoud Khalil's prior ICE detention in 2025 and related court developments keep his shares active. Anthony Fauci's July 2026 Senate appearance, during which he invoked the Fifth Amendment repeatedly on COVID-19 topics, has reinforced positioning around former administration figures. Broader enforcement patterns, including federal fraud actions and international cases such as Benjamin Netanyahu's ongoing trials, inform assessments, though most listed individuals carry low implied probabilities of arrest by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Markets price in uncertainty over whether investigations will advance to physical custody within the window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$417,597
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

icon for Obama arrested before 2027?

Obama arrested before 2027?

3%
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Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?

12%
icon for Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

8%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Who will be arrested before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 24 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "John Brennan" di 20%, diikuti oleh "Mahmoud Khalil" di 18%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 20¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 20% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Who will be arrested before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $417.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 30, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Who will be arrested before 2027?," jelajahi 24 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Who will be arrested before 2027?" adalah "John Brennan" di 20%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 20% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Mahmoud Khalil" di 18%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Who will be arrested before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.