**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s constitutional immunity under Article 84 shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecution except for insurrection or treason, keeping arrest before the end of 2026 highly unlikely.** His pre-presidency indictments on election law violations, development projects, and related matters have been suspended by courts since his June 2025 inauguration, with proceedings deferred pending the end of his term. The ruling Democratic Party’s legislative majority has advanced measures to review or potentially cancel legacy cases perceived as politically motivated, while no new arrest warrants or successful legislative overrides have emerged. Recent developments, including sustained approval ratings near or above 60 percent, a strong party showing in the June 2026 local elections, and focus on foreign policy and domestic priorities, reinforce institutional stability. Traders assign the 92 percent “No” probability to these structural protections and the absence of active enforcement actions that could trigger physical detention within the resolution window. Late-breaking escalations remain theoretically possible but lack supporting developments to date.