Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for under 20mm of precipitation in London for April 2026, driven by provisional Met Office measurements at Heathrow Airport—the market's official resolution source—which record just 4.6mm total, tying for the third-driest April on record there over nearly 80 years of data. This extreme dryness followed early-month rain from Storm Dave (4–5 April), but high-pressure systems dominated afterward, yielding only 24% of average rainfall across England by mid-month and negligible accumulations thereafter, per Environment Agency summaries. Historical April norms hover around 40–45mm; final Met Office verification, expected soon, could theoretically revise totals upward via quality-controlled gauge data, though significant upward shifts are rare for provisionals this low.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPrecipitation in London in April?
Precipitation in London in April?
<20mm 100.0%
20-30mm <1%
30-40mm <1%
40-50mm <1%
$29,132 Vol.
$29,132 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<20mm
Yes
20-30mm
No
30-40mm
No
40-50mm
No
50-60mm
No
60-70mm
No
70mm+
No
<20mm 100.0%
20-30mm <1%
30-40mm <1%
40-50mm <1%
$29,132 Vol.
$29,132 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<20mm
$8,151 Vol.
Yes
20-30mm
$5,288 Vol.
No
30-40mm
$3,192 Vol.
No
40-50mm
$3,877 Vol.
No
50-60mm
$4,176 Vol.
No
60-70mm
$2,109 Vol.
No
70mm+
$2,340 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for under 20mm of precipitation in London for April 2026, driven by provisional Met Office measurements at Heathrow Airport—the market's official resolution source—which record just 4.6mm total, tying for the third-driest April on record there over nearly 80 years of data. This extreme dryness followed early-month rain from Storm Dave (4–5 April), but high-pressure systems dominated afterward, yielding only 24% of average rainfall across England by mid-month and negligible accumulations thereafter, per Environment Agency summaries. Historical April norms hover around 40–45mm; final Met Office verification, expected soon, could theoretically revise totals upward via quality-controlled gauge data, though significant upward shifts are rare for provisionals this low.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$29,132Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for under 20mm of precipitation in London for April 2026, driven by provisional Met Office measurements at Heathrow Airport—the market's official resolution source—which record just 4.6mm total, tying for the third-driest April on record there over nearly 80 years of data. This extreme dryness followed early-month rain from Storm Dave (4–5 April), but high-pressure systems dominated afterward, yielding only 24% of average rainfall across England by mid-month and negligible accumulations thereafter, per Environment Agency summaries. Historical April norms hover around 40–45mm; final Met Office verification, expected soon, could theoretically revise totals upward via quality-controlled gauge data, though significant upward shifts are rare for provisionals this low.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,132Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for under 20mm of precipitation in London for April 2026, driven by provisional Met Office measurements at Heathrow Airport—the market's official resolution source—which record just 4.6mm total, tying for the third-driest April on record there over nearly 80 years of data. This extreme dryness followed early-month rain from Storm Dave (4–5 April), but high-pressure systems dominated afterward, yielding only 24% of average rainfall across England by mid-month and negligible accumulations thereafter, per Environment Agency summaries. Historical April norms hover around 40–45mm; final Met Office verification, expected soon, could theoretically revise totals upward via quality-controlled gauge data, though significant upward shifts are rare for provisionals this low.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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