**No vacancy is viewed as the likely outcome through year-end because the two oldest justices have publicly signaled their intent to serve at least into the 2026-2027 term.** In August 2026, Justice Samuel Alito, 76, told the Wall Street Journal he is “here for another term,” directly addressing and dismissing retirement speculation that followed an erroneous June report. Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, has hired law clerks through October Term 2027, a step widely interpreted as confirmation he plans to remain. The remaining seven justices range in age from 54 to 72 and have given no public indication of departure. With the Supreme Court’s October 2025 term underway and no health or other developments reported that would force an earlier exit, traders assign a 75% probability that the nine-member bench stays intact through December 31, 2026.