Skip to main content
Market icon
Ekonomi·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

Market icon
Ekonomi·Trump

Fed abolished before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

4% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
4% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.2% implied probability to "No" for the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy, financial stability, and as lender of last resort amid ongoing FOMC rate decisions and Treasury yield management. No legislative momentum has emerged since March 2025 introductions of the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R.1846, S.869) by Rep. Massie and Sen. Lee, which stalled without committee hearings or bipartisan backing, underscoring institutional inertia and economic interdependence. Tail risks include a hypothetical congressional supermajority enacting radical reform post-2026 midterms or amid severe crisis eroding Fed independence, though such scenarios remain remote given historical precedents and market reliance on Fed tools.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,724
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.2% implied probability to "No" for the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy, financial stability, and as lender of last resort amid ongoing FOMC rate decisions and Treasury yield management. No legislative momentum has emerged since March 2025 introductions of the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R.1846, S.869) by Rep. Massie and Sen. Lee, which stalled without committee hearings or bipartisan backing, underscoring institutional inertia and economic interdependence. Tail risks include a hypothetical congressional supermajority enacting radical reform post-2026 midterms or amid severe crisis eroding Fed independence, though such scenarios remain remote given historical precedents and market reliance on Fed tools.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,724
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Fed abolished before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 4% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 4¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 4% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Fed abolished before 2027?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Fed abolished before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Fed abolished before 2027?" adalah 4% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 4% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Fed abolished before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.