Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the low historical base rate of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed developments indicating otherwise. Incumbents typically complete their terms unless facing acute health crises, legal compulsion, or overwhelming political pressure, patterns that have held across decades. Trump's public statements emphasize fulfilling his full term following the 2024 election, with no recent announcements, medical disclosures, or institutional signals suggesting an early exit. Realistic scenarios that could still shift these odds include a sudden health event, major scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
4% peluang
$538,757 Vol.
$538,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
4% peluang
$538,757 Vol.
$538,757 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the low historical base rate of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed developments indicating otherwise. Incumbents typically complete their terms unless facing acute health crises, legal compulsion, or overwhelming political pressure, patterns that have held across decades. Trump's public statements emphasize fulfilling his full term following the 2024 election, with no recent announcements, medical disclosures, or institutional signals suggesting an early exit. Realistic scenarios that could still shift these odds include a sudden health event, major scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$538,757Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the low historical base rate of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed developments indicating otherwise. Incumbents typically complete their terms unless facing acute health crises, legal compulsion, or overwhelming political pressure, patterns that have held across decades. Trump's public statements emphasize fulfilling his full term following the 2024 election, with no recent announcements, medical disclosures, or institutional signals suggesting an early exit. Realistic scenarios that could still shift these odds include a sudden health event, major scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$538,757Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the low historical base rate of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed developments indicating otherwise. Incumbents typically complete their terms unless facing acute health crises, legal compulsion, or overwhelming political pressure, patterns that have held across decades. Trump's public statements emphasize fulfilling his full term following the 2024 election, with no recent announcements, medical disclosures, or institutional signals suggesting an early exit. Realistic scenarios that could still shift these odds include a sudden health event, major scandal prompting Senate removal proceedings, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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