Ongoing hostilities and stalled negotiations continue to anchor trader expectations against a Ukraine peace referendum passing before 2027. Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions that Kyiv rejects without enforceable security guarantees, while recent U.S. envoy visits in early September and a Zelenskyy-Trump meeting on September 22 produced only preliminary ideas for energy de-escalation and possible October trilateral talks. Ukrainian public opinion polls show strong opposition to ceding territory without protections, and constitutional requirements for a nationwide referendum on territorial changes demand a sustained ceasefire plus parliamentary or popular initiative processes that remain unmet. A breakthrough in forthcoming diplomacy or an unexpected military shift could still reopen the path to an agreement and vote.