President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—prompted by intelligence assessments of their low-yield or decoupled activities—remains the central driver of trader positioning. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for validation. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 24–36 months and dedicated funding not currently allocated at scale. New START’s expiration in February 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no test has occurred. Low near-term probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles, alongside ongoing congressional oversight of NNSA readiness and appropriations. Key variables include any follow-through funding decisions, official test-readiness declarations, or shifts in great-power signaling before year-end deadlines.
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$768,643 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
7%
$768,643 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,102 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$50,729 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—prompted by intelligence assessments of their low-yield or decoupled activities—remains the central driver of trader positioning. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for validation. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 24–36 months and dedicated funding not currently allocated at scale. New START’s expiration in February 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no test has occurred. Low near-term probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles, alongside ongoing congressional oversight of NNSA readiness and appropriations. Key variables include any follow-through funding decisions, official test-readiness declarations, or shifts in great-power signaling before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,643Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—prompted by intelligence assessments of their low-yield or decoupled activities—remains the central driver of trader positioning. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for validation. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 24–36 months and dedicated funding not currently allocated at scale. New START’s expiration in February 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no test has occurred. Low near-term probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles, alongside ongoing congressional oversight of NNSA readiness and appropriations. Key variables include any follow-through funding decisions, official test-readiness declarations, or shifts in great-power signaling before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,643Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—prompted by intelligence assessments of their low-yield or decoupled activities—remains the central driver of trader positioning. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for validation. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 24–36 months and dedicated funding not currently allocated at scale. New START’s expiration in February 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no test has occurred. Low near-term probabilities reflect these logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles, alongside ongoing congressional oversight of NNSA readiness and appropriations. Key variables include any follow-through funding decisions, official test-readiness declarations, or shifts in great-power signaling before year-end deadlines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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