Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has intensified internal divisions, with hardliners publicly accusing senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a “soft coup” against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei amid fragile US truce talks and economic pressures. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC and Basij commanders, alongside Mojtaba’s decrees expanding domestic surveillance networks, reflect efforts to consolidate military and security control while countering factional challenges. Ongoing negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access, combined with regime reshuffles favoring military figures and persistent opposition calls for change, shape trader assessments of coup risks from internal rivals, security forces, or external-backed actors.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$2,121,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,121,915 Vol.
December 31
$80,690 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has intensified internal divisions, with hardliners publicly accusing senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a “soft coup” against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei amid fragile US truce talks and economic pressures. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC and Basij commanders, alongside Mojtaba’s decrees expanding domestic surveillance networks, reflect efforts to consolidate military and security control while countering factional challenges. Ongoing negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access, combined with regime reshuffles favoring military figures and persistent opposition calls for change, shape trader assessments of coup risks from internal rivals, security forces, or external-backed actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,121,915Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has intensified internal divisions, with hardliners publicly accusing senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a “soft coup” against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei amid fragile US truce talks and economic pressures. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC and Basij commanders, alongside Mojtaba’s decrees expanding domestic surveillance networks, reflect efforts to consolidate military and security control while countering factional challenges. Ongoing negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access, combined with regime reshuffles favoring military figures and persistent opposition calls for change, shape trader assessments of coup risks from internal rivals, security forces, or external-backed actors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,121,915Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-2026 war leadership transition has intensified internal divisions, with hardliners publicly accusing senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of plotting a “soft coup” against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei amid fragile US truce talks and economic pressures. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC and Basij commanders, alongside Mojtaba’s decrees expanding domestic surveillance networks, reflect efforts to consolidate military and security control while countering factional challenges. Ongoing negotiations over Strait of Hormuz access, combined with regime reshuffles favoring military figures and persistent opposition calls for change, shape trader assessments of coup risks from internal rivals, security forces, or external-backed actors.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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