The Justice Department’s repeated assessments that files released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act contain no credible predicate for new U.S. criminal investigations against uncharged third parties form the core driver of the 96% “No” consensus. Extensive prior probes exhausted core allegations, while statutes of limitations, lack of corroboration, and evidentiary gaps have blocked follow-on cases despite millions of pages disclosed since December 2025. No U.S. indictments or arrests tied directly to the new material have materialized through August 2026, even as limited foreign actions occurred abroad. Traders price near-certainty accordingly, viewing the disclosures as producing reputational or civil fallout rather than prosecutable offenses. Residual paths to a reversal before year-end remain narrow, such as previously withheld grand-jury material yielding verifiable new evidence or a state-level probe advancing charges that survive judicial scrutiny.