As the April 30 deadline passed without any verified sabotage of undersea internet cables by Iran or its proxies, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of confirmed incidents amid heightened regional tensions. Recent IRGC-linked reports from Tasnim News, around April 22–28, mapped critical submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, signaling potential vulnerabilities as leverage in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, yet no military action or disruptions materialized despite prior Red Sea precedents by Houthis. High confidence stems from Iran's restraint to avoid broader escalation, with repair ships unhindered and global connectivity intact; late attributions of damage remain a remote possibility but would require unambiguous evidence for any market challenge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<1% peluang
$204,531 Vol.
$204,531 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
<1% peluang
$204,531 Vol.
$204,531 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.As the April 30 deadline passed without any verified sabotage of undersea internet cables by Iran or its proxies, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of confirmed incidents amid heightened regional tensions. Recent IRGC-linked reports from Tasnim News, around April 22–28, mapped critical submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, signaling potential vulnerabilities as leverage in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, yet no military action or disruptions materialized despite prior Red Sea precedents by Houthis. High confidence stems from Iran's restraint to avoid broader escalation, with repair ships unhindered and global connectivity intact; late attributions of damage remain a remote possibility but would require unambiguous evidence for any market challenge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$204,531Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.As the April 30 deadline passed without any verified sabotage of undersea internet cables by Iran or its proxies, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of confirmed incidents amid heightened regional tensions. Recent IRGC-linked reports from Tasnim News, around April 22–28, mapped critical submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, signaling potential vulnerabilities as leverage in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, yet no military action or disruptions materialized despite prior Red Sea precedents by Houthis. High confidence stems from Iran's restraint to avoid broader escalation, with repair ships unhindered and global connectivity intact; late attributions of damage remain a remote possibility but would require unambiguous evidence for any market challenge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$204,531Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
As the April 30 deadline passed without any verified sabotage of undersea internet cables by Iran or its proxies, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of confirmed incidents amid heightened regional tensions. Recent IRGC-linked reports from Tasnim News, around April 22–28, mapped critical submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, signaling potential vulnerabilities as leverage in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, yet no military action or disruptions materialized despite prior Red Sea precedents by Houthis. High confidence stems from Iran's restraint to avoid broader escalation, with repair ships unhindered and global connectivity intact; late attributions of damage remain a remote possibility but would require unambiguous evidence for any market challenge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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