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Politica·Camera Dei Rappresentanti

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politica·Camera Dei Rappresentanti

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 90%

Melissa Hernandez 18.6%

Rakhi Israni Singh 11.6%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 6.4%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Aisha Wahab 90%

Melissa Hernandez 18.6%

Rakhi Israni Singh 11.6%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 6.4%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Aisha Wahab

$508 Vol.

75%

Melissa Hernandez

$248 Vol.

19%

Wendy Huang

$410 Vol.

2%

Carin Elam

$246 Vol.

5%

Matt Ortega

$219 Vol.

6%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$705 Vol.

17%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$188 Vol.

6%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election at 76% amid a crowded Democratic primary field, reflecting her California State Senate tenure, California Democratic Party endorsement, and established name recognition in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates. Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation after misconduct allegations triggered the June 16 special primary, with a potential August 18 runoff if no candidate secures a majority. Melissa Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board president, holds the next-highest share at 40.8% due to local government experience and visibility. Remaining contenders trail significantly, constrained by limited fundraising, lower profiles, and the district’s partisan leanings, with the top two advancing under California’s nonpartisan primary rules.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$2,523
Data di fine
18 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus in the CA-14 special election at 76% amid a crowded Democratic primary field, reflecting her California State Senate tenure, California Democratic Party endorsement, and established name recognition in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates. Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation after misconduct allegations triggered the June 16 special primary, with a potential August 18 runoff if no candidate secures a majority. Melissa Hernandez, a former Dublin mayor and BART board president, holds the next-highest share at 40.8% due to local government experience and visibility. Remaining contenders trail significantly, constrained by limited fundraising, lower profiles, and the district’s partisan leanings, with the top two advancing under California’s nonpartisan primary rules.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$2,523
Data di fine
18 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Domande frequenti

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Aisha Wahab" a 75%, seguito da "Melissa Hernandez" a 19%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 75¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 75% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 16, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "CA-14 Special Election Winner?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" è "Aisha Wahab" a 75%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 75% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Melissa Hernandez" a 19%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.