Trader consensus on 2026 House turnout remains tightly clustered around the 110-125 million range because early-cycle indicators, including primary participation rates in key states and generic ballot enthusiasm gaps, have yet to produce a clear national signal. Historical midterm vote totals provide a baseline, yet current polling on voter intent shows divided engagement across demographic groups and issue priorities such as the economy and health care. With months remaining before Election Day, variables including candidate recruitment, campaign spending, and any late shifts in approval dynamics could still widen or narrow the distribution. The market's even spread among leading brackets reflects this ongoing uncertainty rather than any decisive recent catalyst.