United Russia's 96.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched incumbency and dominance in Russia's parallel voting system—225 party-list proportional representation seats requiring a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—allowing conversion of 30-50% list support into outright majorities, as in 2021. Early April polls from state-linked FOM (35% United Russia) and WCIOM (38%) indicate a modest downward trend amid opposition fragmentation, following the party's late March targets of 55% lists and 195 single-member victories despite regional challenges. With the September 18-20 vote approaching and no major catalysts in the past 30 days, traders see slim upset paths via economic crisis, Ukraine war escalation, or widespread protests.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRussia Unita (ER) 96.8%
Piattaforma Civica (GP) <1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF) <1%
Nuovi Persone (NL) <1%
$924,703 Vol.
$924,703 Vol.
30 set 2026
Russia Unita (ER)
97%
Piattaforma Civica (GP)
1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF)
1%
Nuovi Persone (NL)
1%
Partito Liberal Democratico di Russia (LDPR)
1%
Russia Giusta – Per la Verità (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Russia Unita (ER) 96.8%
Piattaforma Civica (GP) <1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF) <1%
Nuovi Persone (NL) <1%
$924,703 Vol.
$924,703 Vol.
30 set 2026
Russia Unita (ER)
$472,394 Vol.
97%
Piattaforma Civica (GP)
$80,153 Vol.
1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF)
$77,513 Vol.
1%
Nuovi Persone (NL)
$53,766 Vol.
1%
Partito Liberal Democratico di Russia (LDPR)
$31,711 Vol.
1%
Russia Giusta – Per la Verità (SRZP)
$133,959 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$75,205 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 96.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched incumbency and dominance in Russia's parallel voting system—225 party-list proportional representation seats requiring a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—allowing conversion of 30-50% list support into outright majorities, as in 2021. Early April polls from state-linked FOM (35% United Russia) and WCIOM (38%) indicate a modest downward trend amid opposition fragmentation, following the party's late March targets of 55% lists and 195 single-member victories despite regional challenges. With the September 18-20 vote approaching and no major catalysts in the past 30 days, traders see slim upset paths via economic crisis, Ukraine war escalation, or widespread protests.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Mercato aperto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$924,703Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 96.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched incumbency and dominance in Russia's parallel voting system—225 party-list proportional representation seats requiring a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—allowing conversion of 30-50% list support into outright majorities, as in 2021. Early April polls from state-linked FOM (35% United Russia) and WCIOM (38%) indicate a modest downward trend amid opposition fragmentation, following the party's late March targets of 55% lists and 195 single-member victories despite regional challenges. With the September 18-20 vote approaching and no major catalysts in the past 30 days, traders see slim upset paths via economic crisis, Ukraine war escalation, or widespread protests.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$924,703Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 96.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched incumbency and dominance in Russia's parallel voting system—225 party-list proportional representation seats requiring a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—allowing conversion of 30-50% list support into outright majorities, as in 2021. Early April polls from state-linked FOM (35% United Russia) and WCIOM (38%) indicate a modest downward trend amid opposition fragmentation, following the party's late March targets of 55% lists and 195 single-member victories despite regional challenges. With the September 18-20 vote approaching and no major catalysts in the past 30 days, traders see slim upset paths via economic crisis, Ukraine war escalation, or widespread protests.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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