The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$10,447,474 Vol.
$10,447,474 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$10,447,474 Vol.
$10,447,474 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,447,474Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,447,474Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability that Trump remains president through early 2027 stems primarily from his status as incumbent after the 2024 election, with his term extending to January 2029 and no successful invocation of removal mechanisms such as the 25th Amendment, resignation, or Senate conviction on impeachment charges. As of mid-2026, administration priorities and congressional dynamics show continuity rather than disruption, with no verified health events or scandals triggering widespread bipartisan pressure for departure. Historical patterns of presidential stability and the procedural hurdles in Congress reinforce this trader assessment. Late-breaking developments, including sudden medical issues or major legal rulings, remain the main factors that could still shift the outlook within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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