Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to early removal for an incumbent serving a fixed four-year term. Historical precedent shows presidential departures before the end of a first term are uncommon absent death, resignation, or successful invocation of the 25th Amendment or impeachment proceedings with conviction. No major legislative, judicial, or health developments in recent months have altered this baseline. The market price incorporates the low base rate of such events and the absence of active triggers like congressional majorities pursuing removal or public statements signaling voluntary exit. Late-breaking health developments, unforeseen scandals, or rapid shifts in congressional dynamics remain the primary variables that could still move probabilities within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$11,853,962 Vol.
$11,853,962 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$11,853,962 Vol.
$11,853,962 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to early removal for an incumbent serving a fixed four-year term. Historical precedent shows presidential departures before the end of a first term are uncommon absent death, resignation, or successful invocation of the 25th Amendment or impeachment proceedings with conviction. No major legislative, judicial, or health developments in recent months have altered this baseline. The market price incorporates the low base rate of such events and the absence of active triggers like congressional majorities pursuing removal or public statements signaling voluntary exit. Late-breaking health developments, unforeseen scandals, or rapid shifts in congressional dynamics remain the primary variables that could still move probabilities within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,853,962Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to early removal for an incumbent serving a fixed four-year term. Historical precedent shows presidential departures before the end of a first term are uncommon absent death, resignation, or successful invocation of the 25th Amendment or impeachment proceedings with conviction. No major legislative, judicial, or health developments in recent months have altered this baseline. The market price incorporates the low base rate of such events and the absence of active triggers like congressional majorities pursuing removal or public statements signaling voluntary exit. Late-breaking health developments, unforeseen scandals, or rapid shifts in congressional dynamics remain the primary variables that could still move probabilities within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070be91...Trader consensus assigns a 95.5% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through 2026, reflecting the structural barriers to early removal for an incumbent serving a fixed four-year term. Historical precedent shows presidential departures before the end of a first term are uncommon absent death, resignation, or successful invocation of the 25th Amendment or impeachment proceedings with conviction. No major legislative, judicial, or health developments in recent months have altered this baseline. The market price incorporates the low base rate of such events and the absence of active triggers like congressional majorities pursuing removal or public statements signaling voluntary exit. Late-breaking health developments, unforeseen scandals, or rapid shifts in congressional dynamics remain the primary variables that could still move probabilities within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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